Uncertainty, Outcomes & Our Decisions
The brain has a lot of gray matter but hates gray areas. As a planning machine, the brain needs information that is certain so it can figure out the best course of action. And when we don’t get certain information, we get agitated. Perhaps you have said, “I don’t care if the news is good or bad, just tell me what it is. Not knowing is the worst.” In this post, we’re going to talk about why having a financial behavioral plan is key to battling the nagging feeling of uncertainty with regard to our decision-making outcomes.
Whenever there is uncertainty (almost always) we must rely on probabilities to help us make the best decision. But considering probabilities requires a lot of thought and analysis. It means we have to think statistically, which most of us prefer not to do. Instead, we simplify probabilities whenever possible.
Remember the election of 2016? It was said that the election polling was wrong because Trump won. But the polls were giving Trump a 28% chance of winning. The problem was that our brain took that probability and simplified it to zero.
We all want to know what is going to happen in the markets. In the face of uncertainty, we seek out some degree of certainty – even an illusion of certainty. We are attracted to forecasters and market experts who will tell us what is going to happen. And we confuse their popularity and confidence with their ability to predict the future.
The truth is we can think of a lot of things that have occurred that cause investors and “experts” alike to scratch our heads. Surprises and uncertainty are just about the only certainty in the financial markets.
We can’t control the markets or the economy. We can’t rely on expert forecasts, no matter how confident they sound. Even those forecasts with low or high probabilities aren’t sure things – sometimes the unexpected happens.
But we can control how we respond…the choices we make. A financial plan provides guidance and structure. It needs to be coupled with a behavioral plan – how we will respond to the uncertainties and surprises. That’s what we are here for. Let’s focus our time and energy this election season on those things we can control – the financial and behavioral plan.
By Marcus E. Ortega, ChFC, RFC | Investment Advisor Representative | CEO of Mosaic Financial Associates & Orthopaedist Advisory Group | Securities and advisory services offered through Cetera Advisors LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC, a broker/dealer and a Registered Investment Advisor. Cetera is under separate ownership from any other named entity.
©2021 The Behavioral Finance Network. Used with permission.